UPDATED: 11 New Cases Of COVID-19 In Windsor Essex, 1 New LTC Outbreak As Of Friday

Friday May 15th, 2020

Posted at 9:17am

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Last updated: Friday May 15th, 10:49am

The Windsor Essex County Health Unit has confirmed 11 additional cases of COVID-19 as of Friday morning, bringing the local total to 762. They said 396 people locally have recovered.

Cases increased from 751 on Thursday May 14th to 762 on Friday May 15th.

The Health Unit says there have been no additional deaths due to COVID-19 as of Friday and the local COVID-19 death toll stands at 62.

Of the 62 total, local deaths, the Health Unit says 47 deaths have been residents of long-term care and retirement homes.

The Health Unit announced one new outbreak at a long-term care home, Extendicare Tecumseh (St. Alphonse) where one staff member has contracted COVID-19.

There are ongoing outbreaks at 17 long-term care and retirement homes: Banwell Gardens, Regency Park, AMICA, Sun Parlour, Lifetimes on Riverside, Franklin Gardens, Heron Terrace, Country Village Homes, Village at St. Clair, Chartwell Oak Park LaSalle, Berkshire, Chartwell Kingsville Retirement Residence, Extendicare Southwood Lakes, Dolce Vita, Leamington Mennonite Home, Riverside Place, and Chartwell Oak Park Terrace.

The Health Unit’s data shows a total of 190 residents and 93 staff of local long-term care and retirement homes have, or have had COVID-19 as of Friday.

As of Friday morning, 13,271 tests have been conducted and 1,582 tests are pending.

Weekly Epidemiological Summary

Dr. Wajid Ahmed, Medical Officer of Health, presented the Health Unit’s weekly epidemiological summary which looked at local case trends.

He says case counts in Windsor-Essex continue to decline even with increased testing, 2 per cent of tests were positive for COVID-10 in the past 7 days, case fatality rates are higher in long-term care and retirement homes compared to the community, the doubling time of cases locally is generally similar to the rest of the province and the country, and the Health Unit’s research is showing a decline in community spread.

Dr. Wajid Ahmed says the Epidemic Curve helps to show the progression of the disease (symptom onset date). He says since the second or third week of April the symptom onset date has gone down and is “moving in the right direction”. He says “it is very likely we have passed our peak with symptom onset.”

Dr. Ahmed says this graph shows confirmed cases by date, broken down between community acquired and long-term care homes. He says earlier in April we “saw a shift from community to long-term care and retirement homes” and that was the “same time a number of measures were implemented at long-term care and retirement homes.” He says now that the measures have been in place for some time, we are seeing a decline in the number of cases at long-term care and retirement homes.

This graph presents the previous graph as a line graph instead of a bar graph to show the variations.

This graph shows regional and provincial rates of COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 population). Dr. Ahmed says there are two reasons why Windsor-Essex has a higher rate of cases compared to the province: 18 per cent of the Windsor-Essex community are seniors compared with the provincial average of 16 per cent.

Dr. Ahmed says this graph shows how prevalent the disease is in the community based on positive cases per people tested. Dr. Ahmed says “if you look at the number of cases that are coming back positive, it’s jumping from 20 per cent two roughly 5 per cent or lower [of tests conducted].” He says increased testing is revealing that less people have COVID-19.

Dr. Ahmed says this graph shows test results in long-term care and retirement homes. More than 4,000 residents and 2,000 staff have been tested at local facilities.

A breakdown of confirmed cases by age group and gender.

Dr. Ahmed presented this graph which shows the distribution of cases across Windsor and Essex County. He says 2/3rds of the cases are in Windsor, but Windsor has half of the area’s population. Kingsville’s number of cases has increased due to an increase in cases in migrant farm workers, he said.

Dr. Ahmed says this graph shows sources of exposure for positive cases. He says in the past few weeks there has been an increase of transmission between close contacts instead of community transmission.

This graph shows the distribution of cases across health care workers.

Of the COVID-19 cases confirmed in Windsor Essex, this graph shows the number of cases with medical conditions.

Dr. Ahmed says almost two thirds of local cases do not have any underlying health conditions.

This graph shows the symptoms local cases have experienced and the prevalence of those symptoms.

This graph shows the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions by date. The graph now shows the number of hospitalizations at the St. Clair College Field Hospital.

This graph shows the outcomes of cases. Currently 0.4 per cent of local cases have been admitted to the ICU, 3.1 per cent have been hospitalized, 8.3 per cent have died, the Health Unit is still gathering data on 10.1 per cent, 26.6 per cent of cases have self isolated, and 51.5 per cent of cases have resolved.

This graph shows a breakdown of the age and genders of local COVID-19 deaths.

This graph shows a breakdown of deaths between the long term care/retirement homes, the general population, the overall rate in the Health Unit, the overall rate in the province of Ontario, and the overall long-term care and retirement home fatality rate across the province.

Dr. Ahmed says the this graph shows how quickly COVID-19 is spreading in our area. The graph looks at the local doubling rate since the first case was reported. Dr. Ahmed says local cases are doubling less than every five days compared to late March and early April when it was doubling every two days.

This graph that shows day over day comparisons of the doubling time of new cases compared to the province and all of Canada. Dr. Ahmed says Windsor Essex has seen a two per cent increase in cases over the last seven days.

This chart, R0, shows an estimation of how many cases a single case will cause through spread. Dr. Ahmed says the R0 for Windsor Essex is close to 0.86 per cent currently. He says when the R0 is less than one, “that means each existing infection causes less than one new infection. If this trend continues, the disease will continue to decline.” He says the shaded area demonstrates the variations in R0. He says any R0 less than 1 is a good sign as it shows cases are declining in the community.

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