UPDATED: 141 Positive Cases Of COVID-19 In Windsor-Essex, Friday; 2 Long Term Care Residents Pass Away

Friday April 3rd, 2020, 9:11am

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Last updated: Friday April 3rd, 4:59pm

The Windsor Essex County Health Unit has confirmed 13 additional cases of COVID-19 as of Friday morning bringing the local total to 141.

As of Friday morning, the Health Unit says 1,330 people have been tested and 218 tests are still pending.

Health Unit CEO Teresa Marentette says two residents of one long term care home have sadly passed away from COVID-19.

Officials say man in his 80s and woman in her 80s passed away Thursday due to complications from COVID-19. Both individuals were residents of Country Village Homes Long-Term Care facility in Woodslee and were awaiting COVID-19 test results when they passed away.

“It is with sincerest regret that I share the passing of two fellow Windsor-Essex residents,” says Dr. Wajid Ahmed, Medical Officer of Health. “My team and I would like to express our condolences to the families, and wish them peace and privacy during this very difficult time. These are tragic losses for our community and I urge everyone to continue to protect yourself and those around you.”

Officials say Windsor-Essex is currently experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks in the following facilities:

County Village Homes: 5 residents (2 deaths), 5 staff
Amica at Windsor: 1 staff
Lifetimes on Riverside: 1 staff, 1 resident

The Health Unit is working with all three facilities to implement outbreak management protocols and support.

Dr. Ahmed and Ramsey D’Souza, Manager and Epidemiologist presented data and trends for Windsor-Essex and COVID-19. Of the 128 cases confirmed as of the morning of April 2nd, fifty-five per cent are female and forty-five per cent are male.

They said travel continues to be the largest exposure in Windsor-Essex at fifty-four per cent. Sixty-two per cent of travel exposure was associated with travel to Michigan. Officials said thirty-two per cent of all cases reported having a chronic medical condition or were immunocompromised. Forty-three per cent of cases were healthcare workers and ten per cent of cases report visiting a healthcare facility prior to illness.

Overall, eighty-three per cent of cases are self-isolating, fourteen per cent are hospitalized, four per cent are in intensive care and three people have died.

Local Modelling

The Health Unit presented modelling for the growth of local cases on Friday. Dr. Ahmed says the number of new cases in Windsor-Essex is doubling every two days but the spread can be slowed with physical distancing.

“This model is not absolute, it can be changed by many factors,” he said.

Dr. Ahmed presented a projection of 4,000 deaths in Windsor-Essex after 200 days from the first case if no public health measures had been put into place.

He said with strict physical distancing — assuming everyone follows all public health measures — that number can be reduced by ninety-six per cent.

“The real difference we start to see if we have these measures put in place for more than a month,” he said. “And a real flattening effect after two to three months of strict physical distancing.”

The Health Unit’s slide showing an overview of the purpose for modelling the growth of local cases.

The Health Unit’s slide showing assumptions the model makes.

The Health Unit’s slide showing the two types of scenarios modelled.

The Health Unit’s slide showing the duration factors for the modelling.

The Health Unit’s slide showing modelling for the growth of new cases daily using different scenarios.
Dr. Ahmed says the left hand column shows the scenario with no intervention which will result in Windsor-Essex seeing 200,000 cases.
He said the right column shows various models for physical distancing.
“The real difference we start to see if we have these measures put in place for more than a month,” he said. “And a real flattening effect after two to three months of strict physical distancing.”

The Health Unit’s modelling showing the demand for Intensive Care Unit care. The black line represents the capacity at Windsor Regional Hospital (83).