Ontario Releases COVID-19 Modelling & Projections

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The Province of Ontario has released modelling that projects the spread and mortality of COVID-19 throughout Ontario over the next two years and provides recommendations on how Ontarians can limit the spread.

Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health, Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, and Dr. Peter Donnelly, President and CEO of Public Health Ontario, released the modelling Friday afternoon.

The short term projections show Ontario will reach 80,000 cases and 1,600 deaths by the end of April while the long term models suggest Ontario could see 100,000 deaths over two years without public health measures and between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths with public health measures.

Some of the future measures suggested by the Province in the report include:

• Reduce the number and types of essential workplaces.
• Enhance focus on enforcement and fines for non compliance.
• Expand direction/guidance on physical distancing, including retail settings.
• Enhanced support for elderly, homeless and other vulnerable populations and
  communities.
• Consider entry restrictions in some communities including First Nations.
• Human resource management (movement of health care workers between settings).
• Use of technology to reinforce self isolation (alerts).
• Additional public education and communication (shelter in place with limited
  exceptions).

The Ontario government’s slide presentation is available in PDF format here and is shown below: